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Ask Willie – Help, my KiwiSaver has caught a cold!

So I’m looking to buy in six months, and my KiwiSaver has taken a hit thanks to Coronavirus. Should I change to a Conservative fund or ride it out? Previously I would ride it out and made up my loses. I don’t really want to go conservative as that would be locking in a loss, but I also can’t afford it to keep sliding!! Haaaaalp, sincerely your non financial savvy friend

Normally when I am speaking to someone about what to/ how to KiwiSaver, I would advise to align your fund / portfolio mix to your investment horizon. Well, what does that mean? Simply, just making sure that your investments are structured to meet your needs when and if you need to.

  • For example a 10 year plus horizon, such as investing for your retirement could look like putting your money into high growth or aggressive investments (property & equity shares most likely).
  • A horizon of three to 10 years, you would prefer a more moderate, balanced approach (mix of property, shares, and cash/ term deposits to reduce the risk of losing in a downturn).
  • And a short one to two year horizon (such as saving for your first home), you will more than likely want a conservative set up (mainly cash/ term deposits investments, with a little bit of property or equity shares to capture some growth hopefully).

When I was looking to buy a first house, my approach was to shift 80% of my KiwiSaver to conservative funds, and 20% between balanced, growth, or equity funds. Anywhere between 12 – 24 months prior to purchasing is generally a good time to think about changing your allocation, but life sometimes moves a lot faster than this. So when you know you want to access it, that is normally the best time to change. You won’t get the big ups in the meantime, but you also don’t get the big slips. Protecting the value of your KiwiSaver is the priority now, so there is increased certainty about how much from KiwiSaver can be accessed for a deposit.

So then what? It would be a good time ideally to change now to protect against future slips. However, most medical/ pandemic related events that impact stock markets are short lived. Normally experience 10-12% decreases in first 6 months (we are in about mth 3ish of Corona and NZX has lost about 8-10% atm I think). Could be another 5% loss over the next 3-4 mths if history is anything to go by. Also, in the 12mths after a medical event, stocks rebound more than the losses, up to the likes of a 30% gain (because people eventually realise that there wasn’t a real long-term threat, it was mostly irrational fear, and that the world goes round). They reckon a corona vaccine is about 12 mths and $3b away, so we could see a similar pattern emerge from the markets relating to Corona virus as has been the case for other pandemics.

The next point I would like to make is related to the age old question, when is the best time to buy a house? Now is always the answer. The secret is buying the “right” house. Most buy badly. You can’t time markets, but as with most investments time in the market is the key to success. So if you buy well, it won’t matter what the market is doing in the short term. I say this because I wouldn’t 100% suggest that you must wait 12 – 24mths to ride out and recover your loss in Kiwisaver. You can, but you might miss out on buying a good property today that will house you and provide value until then.

If you took a larger view of stocks in the last year or more, you will see the NZX increased over 20% by the time Corona dropped it to its knees. However it is still up today over 10% from last March. Pretty good returns compared to 1% bank deposits if you ask me. If you take a bigger look at your funds, it will still paint a rosy picture and a good return on your investment so far (just not as much as it was 2 weeks ago). So, don’t feel too disheartened by the short sharp decline, it’s not as bad as it may seem.

And lastly, consider whether you need to use all your KiwiSaver or not. This comes back to buying well. Your balance might seem like a big or small amount to you today, but if you consider how much that withdrawal will cost you in retirement, it’s mere chump change. For example, taking out $5,000 today can cost you retirement savings of $222,000 in 40 years. This is assuming the market grows on average 10% – which it has done so for the last 20 odd years. That equals an extra $97,000, after adjusting for inflation in today’s dollar value. So, you should not be thinking “I’m putting $5,000 towards my house from my KiwiSaver”, but rather “I’m putting $5000 against my house today and losing out on $97,000 for my retirement today”. Yes, there will also be increases in house values that will provide for your retirement most likely, and there are many other good reasons to buy a house using KiwiSaver, but it is important to know what you are sacrificing as your house value won’t increase 20 times over like your KiwiSaver fund has the potential to. At the end of the day it is a trade off.

Sorted.co.nz Savings Calculator tool – example of the potential retirement value in 40 years of saving $5,000 today

This is something that is a hard concept for most to understand, and quite honestly most Kiwi’s don’t want to know about. It is known as “opportunity cost”, which by the Google definition is “the loss of other alternatives when one alternative is chosen.” Sounds airy fairy just reading the definition let alone thinking about it in a practical real life situation. But it is good to keep in mind. There is no right and wrong answer here, but I believe if we can educate NZer’s on all the impacts of withdrawing KiwiSaver, everyday Kiwi’s can much more comfortably make decisions and plans for their future today.

Remember your cold & flu tablets people,

the_budget_investor

I have included two links below to resources that I find incredibly useful and relevant in answering the question.

First is the Sorted.co.nz Savings Calculator. This was used to calculate the “alternative” investment for retirement lost when withdrawing $5,000 from KiwiSaver today (pictured above). There are many other excellent tools on the Sorted website so please do have a look around.

Secondly is an opinion piece from Sam Stubbs – founder of Simplicity KiwiSaver. With the current climate of media hype and build up, Sam provides somewhat a voice of reason against the noise and panic being pushed down on us.

Next post out Wednesday the 18th.

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Who is the_budget_investor ?

Whatever you do in life will be insignificant, but it’s very important that you do it.

– Mahatma Gandhi

Where to START? Well, I guess with an inspirational quote is as good a start as any. I am Willie Eyles, a 29 year old male, raised in Upper Hutt, living in Hawkes Bay. I tend to think of myself as too old to be an influential blogger in this day ‘n’ age, where trends change faster than the number of grey hairs appearing on my head. Some of you may view me as an old, rambling nobody, or with all the youth and world still at my feet. I guess the great beauty is that I believe age does not matter in life (unless you are 99 and on the final count down), that we ought to seek out what makes us not just happy, but secure and confident also in life.

So WHY do i wish to start a blog of all things?

I come from a working class family, where my parents finished school, found a job, found each other, brought a house, raised a family, paid off the mortgage, and are now in the sunset years of their working careers as they move towards retirement.

To me, it looked like a lot of hard work just to get by in life, of which many believe the family model for success that my parents employed, is no longer a viable option to get by and provide for you and your family. There must be a better way to get more out of life without putting yourself through the wringer.

I hope that by blogging publicly, instead of keeping a personal journal, I can share my learning’s and insights on my financial journey. To connect with everyday Kiwi’s, and share my success’ with them. Rub off a little bit of my knowledge and know how, so that they may enjoy a more successful lifestyle.

Ultimately, my JOURNEY will be a financial one. Looking at ways to get out of the rat race, and increase my wealth. Very intentionally I have left the theme of this blog out until now. Whilst it may be a key feature of the blog, It certainly is not the only measure in life for what is successful. In many cases I believe the financial benefits in life are a little more than as a result of making non-financial decisions.

Sure, I do wish to dive into financial wealth creation, but also into what it means to be emotionally wealthy, socially wealthy, wealthy in culture and well-being. Because here lies the immeasurable wealth, that will far outlast any spare change sitting in a bank earning interest income.

I invite YOU to stick out your thumb and hitch a ride with me. The most value I get out of life is from working with others to help them achieve their goals.

I’m not merely here to listen to the sound of my voice (in my head as it may be), but to interact with other everyday New Zealanders, find out what matters to you? what is it that we Kiwi’s would like to know or have access to? What can we do to plug the financial knowledge gap in this country?

I’m super excited. In it for the long haul. Today marks the “official” start, but the journey is sure to be something much more amazing.

From simple beginnings the_budget_investor

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My (Second) First Blog Post

I thought I’d lay down a little bit more information from my last post on what I hope to deliver and what you may find coming to read the_budget_investor. For now, there are three key ways in which I hope to deliver content.

The first ONE is quite simple, regurgitating knowledge and information known to me, that I think will have an impact and of benefit to you the reader. This is the semi structured part, where topics will be brainstormed, developed, planned, and produced. How do I decide this? Well, again this is a blog, so it’s mainly a derivative of what I think is important, but most of my ideas don’t necessarily come from within me. Rather from my own research into markets and industries, from my day job in finance, accounting and business, podcasts I listen to daily and weekly, and from other reputable blogs already out there, I will source ideas that I think are relevant and impactful for everyday Kiwi’s. This is the basis on which I will try to deliver the ” Knowledge Corner ” section of my blog.

The SECOND way in which I plan to deliver – and as some may say, even more impactful and relevant – will be known as a section called ” Ask Willie “, where I will develop ideas for the blog based on your feedback and questions I receive. I really get excited about this section the most, as this is more tailored made and direct, to information and knowledge that you should find useful, and if not just interesting to read about. I mean, come on, who else knows what the reader wishes to read about than the reader themselves.

The last, and THIRD section I plan to develop over time is the ” Self ” section. Looking back at what made this blog a goal of mine, was my intention was to create a blog that follows my journey on the path to financial freedom. I soon realised, through talking with friends and colleagues, that I had a great opportunity to share this journey and knowledge with others which could have immeasurable impact on their lives. So yes, my main focus now is on the Knowledge Corner and Ask Willie sections, but I still feel there is great importance and benefit to documenting my journey as an example to those just starting out, whom cannot quite make out the light at the end of the tunnel. Spoiler alert!! The light from the Sun takes eight minutes to reach planet Earth. All it takes is time and patience and it will reach you in the end.

I find it super EXCITING, even at this point just to write a post about writing posts. For me, I can already see the development from a basic idea for a blog, fleshing out the topics, and through to ways in which I can deliver said topics.

Stay tuned, next post out Wednesday 11th

Breaking into the Budget hoodoo

Yes! The big, scary B word. At some point we have all tried to implement a Budget in our lives for one reason or another, and the habit just never seems to stick or even be effective for the majority of us. So what is it? Are we all just mentally weak, lacking the true will power to get ahead financially? Or is Budgeting just some con at large to distract us from the reality that we will never be any better off than we currently are?

Even I, with a strong background in math, statistics, economics, accounting & finance, have tried and failed multiple times to “Budget” for a goal or more simply to make it from paycheck to paycheck. What I never quite grasped a hold of is “Why am I budgeting / What is my Why?” and “How does this help me achieve my overall goals / how does this help me live my current day to day lifestyle?”. I think these questions are key in being a successful investor, but for now lets take it back a step.

What is a Budget? As per Google, Budgeting means –

noun

  1. an estimate of income and expenditure for a set period of time.
    • “keep within the household budget”

In my opinion, this definition is the catalyst for why we get it wrong when we think about budgeting. Right from the outset, a Budget is defined and thought of as some form of constraint. A pre-defined set of limits to keep within, or else a sense of failure. Such as “keep[ing] within the household budget”.

Every time I have failed to Budget, it is 100% because I have failed to plan my budget properly. I would keep within my limits, right up until I couldn’t. And once that feeling of failure sets in, all is loss, thus ending our faith in the magic of Budgeting. I can remember a time when I use to count every penny, I was saving $5 a week for a concert ticket later in the year. One punctured & shredded tire later saw the swift end to that. I had to dip into my savings and could no longer afford the ticket price. It would have taken a mere $10 a week for a few more months, but I simply couldn’t afford it with my current level of income, and that’s where I gave up. My budget no longer allowed for it, so it was cut from the list of expenses. I’m sure we all know the feeling, most of us are constrained in one way or another, and this quite often leads to our budgeting failures before we have even begun.

So why is budgeting so hard? Well, we budget backwards. We start off with our constraints (usually the amount of weekly income we may earn) and then try to fit as much as possible into those limits. Inevitably, some things are not going to make the final cut unless you are as disciplined as a monk. To be honest though, it’s not that bad of a place to start, still better than not having a Budget at all, it’s just not a very flexible option if it gives us an unfavorable answer – spend less than X or else! Life is never straight forward though, you can have all the best planning in the world, and something will still step out of line.

We predominantly use our left brain when it comes to Budgeting, which performs tasks that have to do with logic, such as in science and mathematics. So this makes a lot of sense to start with as it will lay the foundations of our Budget. For example, if I have $500 of income, and $300 of expense, I have $200 left over.

What normally doesn’t get engaged as much throughout the process is the right side, which performs tasks that have do with creativity and the arts. For example if I have $300 of Income, and $500 of expenses, I am short $200. I have $150 of expenses on luxuries that I can cut back on, but still $50 shy of what I need! I do however have a large garden full of food and flowers all year long. What if I sold $75 of food and flowers at the Sunday market every week? I’m now saving $25 a week, yay!

Now it’s not always that easy, but it illustrates the impact the right side of the brain has complimenting the left. A lot of people are using side hustles these days in order to earn a few extra dollars, so I think the concept is not too foreign to understand, but this is such a great example of people stepping outside of the box to achieve their financial goals. You don’t need a Budget to do this, but one might highlight if you need a higher level or income or an opportunity is there to fast track your savings.

With all that being said, I would rather define Budgeting as –

noun

  1. an estimate of expenditure for a set period of time AND DEVELOPING A PLAN to generate income in excess of expenses.

These days I am no longer constrained by my income to live day by day. It does limit my ability to grow wealth, which is now my focus, so I spend a lot of time brainstorming and planning how best to use my leftover savings. Notice how this is starting to sound less like your typical “household budget” and more like something that would be called “financial planning”.

Well, essentially, they are one and the same, they just invoke a very different feeling inside when you say them. One sounds like a boring, constrained chore you must do every week. The other sounds more like a forward looking, proactive task that will benefit you greatly in the future. I’ll let you decide which is which, but in reality they both achieve the same outcomes, getting ahead financially.

I’m very nerdy and I love numbers. Right now I could tell you how much I plan to spend, on what items, for every week, covering the next 12 – 18 months, and I update this weekly. Wow, intense right? Don’t worry, not every wants or needs such a detailed budget. For most people, just looking out 1 – 3 months will be enough. Life changes so fast that looking beyond this is not all that useful. And it can be as detailed, complex, or simple as you like.

If I was to summarise my approach to Budgeting –

  1. Understand your expenses first! This is the key. What are you spending all your money on. Try recording a weeks worth, and stretch that out for a month (4 weeks) if you can.
  2. Is it a pretty picture? Do you need to be spending on everything you have done in the last month. Totally fine if you do. Just highlighting that this is the best time to identify those daily coffees, or 100’s of shoe purchases that don’t help you put food on the table or that next family holiday.
  3. Now calculate your income. Note how this is not the first or second step. You can think of these first three steps as your order of priority for your left brain to focus on.
  4. Whats left (or not)? Do you need to find that extra income to pay for everything you need to? Now’s the time to engage your right brain. Is there more hours at work you can pick up, a side hustle, can you delay that holiday 1 month for when flights and accommodation are cheaper? If you do have extra surplus, do you put it in A) emergency savings, B) regular savings, C) invest for the long term? There is almost always a solution, sometimes we do have to cut spending, but I would like you to challenge yourself, seek out others for ideas on what you could do to increase your income or be able to afford what you want.
  5. Check in to check out. For the most part you are done with your budget now. Sit back and let the plan come to life. You will only need to tweak it a little bit for when things are not accurate each week. The importance of this relates back to step 1 – understanding your expenses. Things change over time, so if you update your budget as you go it will be more accurate and hopefully avoid those shock expenses.
  6. And for when those unexpected expenses arise, just pop back to step 4. It might sound over simplified to do so, but once you train your brain to think about your budget like this it should start to feel a lot easier. You might even realise you do a lot of this in your head already, and formalising it in an excel spreadsheet might help ease your mind and stress during the week, or open up new options and ideas you couldn’t see before.

Hopefully this has left you with a less conventional view on budgeting. 80% of the advice out there is focused around the nitty, gritty details of setting a budget and sticking to it, with only 20% focused on why you should set a budget and focusing on outcomes instead of inputs. I personally, and I think this shows in the above post, try to focus 80% of my thoughts around why am I budgeting, what am I trying to achieve, what are my goals, and then 20% on the how will I achieve this in the detail of a budget.

I actually have found writing about this topic more difficult than I anticipated. I very much am a detail person, and there is a huge depth of detail built into my budget, but most of it has all been driven from my need to brainstorm and problem solve ideas relating to my financial goals.

So, until the sun rises 7 more times, ciao. the_budget_investor

Next post Wednesday 25th

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